Kazutomo IRIE

Distinguished APERC board members, excellent energy experts, APERC alumni and friends, my colleague researchers and staff,

It is my great honour and pleasure to host the 30th anniversary of the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC). I would like to take this opportunity to extend my heartfelt welcome to all the participants in this event today.

On July 1st, 1996, APERC was established as an APEC regional research institute dedicated to energy economics and energy policy studies under the auspices of the APEC Energy Ministerial Meeting (EMM) through the APEC Energy Working Group (EWG).

As for APERC’s history, my colleague Mr. Mitsuhito TAKADA, Vice President of APERC, will overview this immediately after my remarks. And later, I expect Mr. Keiichi YOKOBORI, the first President of APERC, will look back upon the early days of APERC. So, for now, please allow me to indulge in my personal memories rather than official statements.

On July 1st, 1996, I was in Canberra, the capital city of the Commonwealth of Australia. In the previous month, I was temporarily transferred from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) to be Economic Counsellor of the Japanese Embassy in Canberra, Australia. I was busy settling down in a totally new and alien environment, but in addition, preparing for the MITI Minister, Mr. Shunpei TSUKAHARA’s visit to Australia. Minister TSUKAHARA was coming to Sydney to attend the first meeting of the APEC Energy Ministers in late August. I was heavily involved in the logistics of his visit, but not in the substance. Therefore, I have no memory of reading the ministerial meeting document.

In its seventh paragraph, the document says Ministers recognized that high quality information on regional energy supply and demand trends will provide business and government policymakers with better tools for making well-informed decisions. In this regard, Ministers welcomed the establishment of the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC), which is located in Tokyo and managed under the guidance of the Working Group on Regional Energy Cooperation. Ministers noted that the work of the Centre will provide a valuable input to their future policy deliberations. Thus, I had a near miss with APERC in August 1996.

My first real encounter with APERC was much later. In March 2008, I retired from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (MITI) and, in April, moved to the University of Tokyo to be a Professor in charge of research and education on nuclear energy policy and laws. At the same time, I started to work for the Institute for Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), on a part-time basis as a Senior Research Fellow of Nuclear Energy Group. On the first day at IEEJ, I dropped in at APERC, which was an IEEJ’s affiliated centre at the time, to meet its then President, Mr. Kenji KOBAYASHI. Mr. KOBAYASHI was two-year senior to me at MITI/METI and I knew him well, so I made a courtesy call on him. I worked for two years for IEEJ on a part time basis. During these two years, I had quite few chances to visit the APERC office because, if I remember correctly, the APERC office was on the 16th floor of Inui Building Kachidoki at the time, while the IEEJ headquarters was on its 10th floor.

In 2010, I decided to quit IEEJ in order to concentrate more on research and education at the University of Tokyo. However, the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 changed my plan. The University of Tokyo decided to revise its curriculum for nuclear energy research and education, and I had to leave the university in March 2012.

Fortunately for me, in the following April 2012, President KOBAYASHI kindly invited me to APERC as its General Manager of Research, which had been vacant at the time. Since then, I have been working for APERC for a total of 14 years. Six years as General Manager until 2018, seven years as President, and the last one year as Chairman and President.

APERC has been headquartered in Kachidoki, a small, reclaimed island off Tokyo Bay, not far from Ginza but not considered within downtown Tokyo. I have been in Kachidoki for 14 years, much longer than Heinrich Harrer’s seven years in Tibet, also more comfortable.

In my time here, I’ve been continuously impressed by the staff and researchers at APERC. They come with very different skills, experiences, and backgrounds, but always maintain a positive, hard-working group with a strong team culture. I have always had this wonderful team of researchers and administrative staff around me, unlike Heinrich Harrer, who was always alone in Tibet.

So, joking aside, I would like to hand over the microphone to Vice President TAKADA to review the history of APERC. Thank you for your kind attention.

Keiichi YOKOBORI

Dr. Kazutomo Irie, Distinguished Advisory Board Members, dedicated Researchers, Administrative Staff, and Friends,

It is my great honour and pleasure to join you in celebrating the 30th Anniversary of the Asia-Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) today. I would like to take this opportunity to present my personal observations on the significance of APERC’s work and the challenges that lie ahead in its activities.

On 1 July 1996, APERC was established as a multilateral research entity under the guidance of APEC Energy Working Group (EWG). Institutionally, it was organised as an affiliated unit of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ). However, both APERC’s research activities and administrative arrangements had to be built from the ground up, particularly the recruitment of qualified researchers.

However, I was fortunate that many EWG representatives and researchers were already friends and colleagues from my earlier career at the International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Council (WEC), and International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE). Thanks to their advice and support, APERC was able to attract many talented researchers.

To ensure that APERC receive high level of advice from experts in the APEC region, the APERC Advisory Board was established. Today, I am pleased to see that APERC has earned recognition among global energy specialists as a reliable source of energy-related economic research.

One of the challenges APERC faced in its early days was the task of delivering an APEC regional energy outlook within just a year and a half. This deadline imposed by the EWG seemed nearly impossible in the eyes of many APERC researchers. Yet Dr. Ji-chul Ryu, then Vice President, brought remarkable energy and talent to the effort and successfully carried out this Herculean task. Thanks to the dedicated contribution of APERC researchers, the APERC energy outlook has since evolved into APERC’s flagship publication.

On this occasion, I would like to underscore the uniqueness of the APERC energy outlook. First, it is a product of joint analytical exercise by researchers from across the APEC region. Second, it presents a detailed picture for each individual APEC economy. By contrast, publications such as the IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the US Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook present global and regional perspectives, but do not offer an economy-by-economy analysis.

Given that APEC comprise economies with diverse economic, social and cultural backgrounds, the economy-specific breakdown offered by the APERC outlook is particularly valuable for decision makers in both business and government sectors throughout the region. On this account, the participation of researchers in preparing the APERC outlook is very essential.

At the same time, I would like to offer a word of caution on the nature of APERC Outlook. Fundamentally, the outlook is not a prediction, but rather a scenario-building exercise based on a set of assumptions, including those related to policy options. However, it does present a plausible future that is logically consistent with its underlying assumptions. It also highlights many important and thought-provoking policy issues.

What I have just emphasized is of course nothing new to you. Nevertheless it is worth repeating, as the Outlook is often misunderstood by those who may interpret it as a definitive forecast rather than a structured scenario.

Following the completion of the initial APERC energy outlook, APERC embarked on a series of energy policy-related research projects that reflected the priorities of the majority of member economies. These projects were particularly shaped by the perspectives expressed by APEC Energy Ministers and the EWG.

I would also like to emphasize the value of APERC’s energy policy-related research projects. Unlike the European Union, APEC does not aim economic integration. However, APEC economies frequently face similar energy policy challenges. A recent example is the turbulence in the oil and gas markets, triggered by the US-Iranian conflict. The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global oil and gas markets, regardless of each economy’s direct dependence on Gulf oil. Prices of crude oil produced outside the Middle East such as WTI, sharply increased, demonstrating the high degree of global market integration in oil and gas.

Despite the diverse economic, social and cultural backgrounds of APEC economies, they share common exposure to the severe impacts of oil and gas supply disruptions. Studying these differing impacts and policy options across APEC economies can foster a shared understanding of the issues and potential responses. For instance, an early APERC study on emergency oil reserves, which I took part in, highlighted the value of jointly held emergency oil stocks. In my view, in a globally integrated oil market, coordinated stock drawdowns by several economies could partially offset regional and global supply losses. Thus, the release of emergency oil reserves could benefit all oil importing economies.

Besides oil stocks, I am also interested in the development of oil and gas pipelines as well as power grid interconnections in the region. Such infrastructure have been well developed in Europe and North America. Building APEC-wide energy logistic infrastructure connections could be beneficial for APEC economies in light of growing energy demand.

On 1 July 2019, APERC was reorganised as an independent Japanese legal entity, separated from IEEJ. It allowed APERC to streamline its research activities, while it maintains cooperation with IEEJ. With this institutional change, I became a member of the APERC Board of Trustees. In that capacity, I regularly receive APERC’s activity reports. I would like to offer some brief comments on the current APERC activities.

In comparison with the initial stage, APERC activities now cover wider activities, which include, Energy Data Network Service, Know-How Transfer Programme, and Policy Cooperative Activities. Energy Data Network Service and Know-How Transfer Programme had been carried out by the Energy Data and Modelling Centre (EDMC) and International Cooperation Department of IEEJ, respectively, before the creation of APERC. However, APERC was somehow involved in them, particularly, the compilation of reliable energy database, on which APERC outlook analyses are based. More specifically, Dr. Kenichi Matsui of EDMC was the chair of the EWG’s Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis, which supervised the work of APERC. Furthermore, I had held the position of IEA’s Office Director of Information and Emergency Systems Operations, under which Energy Statics Division was placed, between 1985 and 1989. During that period, IEA started the publication of the non-OECD Energy Statistics. Thus, I recognised the need of division of work among regional and international organisations for a common set of worldwide energy statistical data. I discussed this idea with IEA, which eventually led to the creation of the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). However, when APERC’s first Energy Outlook was produced, it was based on the IEA’s energy statistics, which was at that time, the most consistent energy database.

On the Know-How Transfer Programme, APERC saw its value in strengthening the capacity of regional energy researchers. The program offered them the foundation for analytical work while fostering mutual understanding of policy options or implementation strategies. I expect these activities will open broader opportunities for energy policy cooperation.

With regard to Policy Cooperative Activities, APERC lacked the resources to implement them just after its establishment. However, based on my personal experience as Head of IEA’s Country Studies Division, peer-review exercises are very useful tools to deepen each economy’s energy policy options. The purpose of this is not an exchange of criticisms against member economies’ energy policies. This should be regarded as a process of deepening mutual understanding of energy policy options and identifying differing perspectives. Each economy chooses its own policies under budgetary and human resources constraints. Other economies’ differing choices could be regarded as a kind of differing policy simulations. Each economy is free to choose its own policy, but other economies’ experiences and viewpoints could offer fresh insights and provide more effective and reasonable options.

In closing, I am pleased to witness the widening role of APERC in advancing collaborative energy research activities across the region and strengthening energy policy cooperation. At the same time, I firmly believe that APERC’s continued delivery of high-quality research depends on the dedication and expertise of capable researchers. I therefore take this opportunity to appeal to APEC EWG members to support APERC by continuing to nominate and recruit talented Visiting Researchers from your economies.

Thank you for your kind attention and patience.

Yoshiomi YOSHINO

Good evening, everyone. On behalf of METI, I’d like to say a few words for congratulatory remarks. It is a great pleasure to offer my heartfelt congratulations on the 30th anniversary of APERC. Over the past three decades, APERC has made remarkable contributions to advancing energy policy and promoting sustainable growth in the Asia-Pacific region. I’d like to express my deepest respect for these enduring achievements.

APEC has promoted cooperation that complements the multilateral free trade system while respecting the voluntary and non-binding nature of its framework. In this context, APERC was founded in 1996 to strengthen the intellectual foundation of energy policy in the region through sectoral cooperation. For Japan, a country with limited domestic energy resources, international cooperation in the field of energy policy is essential.

The Japanese government has strongly supported APERC activities since its inception. Since its establishment, APERC has consistently addressed the challenges faced by APEC economies by providing high-quality analysis and policy-relevant insights across a broad range of fields, including energy supply and demand outlooks, energy security, energy efficiency, and decarbonization. APERC’s neutral and evidence-based research has earned strong recognition as a trusted foundation for energy policy discussion, establishing itself as a key knowledge hub in this region.

Over the past 30 years, the global energy landscape has undergone profound changes. Increasing uncertainty in energy markets, heightened geopolitical risks, accelerating responses to climate change, and rapid technological innovation have further complicated energy-related challenges. Despite these challenges, APERC has effectively responded to the needs of the time by supporting dialogue and cooperation in the region through timely and rigorous analysis. This sustained effort has become an essential pillar of energy cooperation within APEC.

In particular, the APERC approach of respecting the diverse circumstances of individual economies while promoting constructive and voluntary dialogue with an eye on the future has become increasingly important in today’s world, where the risk of fragmentation is growing. APERC’s longstanding commitment to capacity building and knowledge sharing, including developing the future generation of energy experts, represents a significant contribution to the region’s long-term resilience and prosperity.

As APERC marks this important milestone, I sincerely hope it continues to build on its strong foundation of trust and accomplishment, further strengthening its role as an intellectual leader in the energy field in line with APEC guidance. I look forward to a continuous contribution towards a sustainable, resilient, and prosperous future for the Asia-Pacific region. The Japanese government remains committed to supporting APERC activities. In closing, I wish APERC every success in the years ahead and extend my best wishes for the health and continued achievement of all those who have supported and worked with APERC. Thank you very much.