Opening Session

Opening Remarks
Mr.Takato Ojimi, President, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
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Overview and Updates of the 7th APEC Energy D/S Outlook
Mr. James Kendell, Vice President, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)

Session 1: 7th Edition Outlook BAU and TGT Scenarios

This session with focus on the impacts of decreasing energy intensity and increasing renewable energy use on energy scenario projections. The discussion will begin with a presentation of the results of the Business-As-Usual (BAU) and APEC Target (TGT) Scenarios that will be published in the 7th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook. It will continue with discussion of other related analysis and topics related to the impacts of energy efficiency and technological change in the energy system.

S1 Moderator

Prof. Thierry Lefevre, President, Centre for Energy Environment Resources Development Foundation, Director, Centre for Energy-Environment Research & Development Co., Ltd.
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Introduction of “Business as Usual” (BAU) and APEC Target (TGT) Scenarios
Dr. Melissa C. Lott, Assistant Vice President, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
S1-1PDF
Trends in Energy Scenario Development Globally and in APEC
Ms. Cecilia Tam, Senior Energy Analyst, International Energy Agency (IEA)
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Discussion of a “Target” Scenario for the ASEAN Member States
Dr. Sanjayan Velautham, Executive Director, ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE)
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The Impact of Demand-Side Efficiency and Renewables
Dr. Iain MacGill, Associate Professor, School of Electrical Engineering; and Joint Director, Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets (CEEM), University of New South Wales
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Increasing the Use of Renewables in Energy Supply – A Perspective from Chile
Mr. Frank Leañez, Consultant for the University of Chile; and previous Regional Manager,Asia-Pacific/South America/Africa for PLEXOS

Session 2: Climate Change and the 7th Edition Outlook 2 Degree Scenario (2DS)

This session with focus on the impacts of transitioning to a low-carbon energy system, beginning with a presentation of the results of the 2-Degree Scenario (2DS) that will be published in the 7th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook. It will continue with discussion of other related analysis and topics related to energy sector decarbonisation from technical, policy, and legal perspectives.

S2 Moderator

Dr. Hardiv Harris Situmeang, Chairman, Indonesian National Committee - WEC
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Introduction of the 2DS
Dr. Melissa C. Lott, Assistant Vice President, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
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The Low-Carbon Transition in China
Prof. Zhou Dadi, Director General Emeritus and Senior Researcher, Energy Research
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The Value of Energy Reserves in a Carbon-Constrained World
Dr. Andrew Leach, Associate Professor, Alberta School of Business

S2-3

The Potential of Electrification and Efficiency in Reducing GHG Emissions
Dr. Nan Zhou, Group Leader, China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)

Session 3: The Implications of the Three Scenarios (BAU, TGT, & 2DS) on Investment, Trade and Security

This session with focus on the implications of the three scenarios on energy sector investment, trade, and geopolitics. It will begin with an overview of the energy investment, trade, and security analysis included in the 7th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook. It will continue with detailed discussion on these topics, including the geopolitical implications of these scenarios.

S3 Moderator

Dr. Ross Lambie, Assistant Secretary, Economic Branch, Department of the Environment and Energy
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Energy investment, trade and security in the 7th Outlook Scenarios
Ms. Kirsten Smith and Mr. Ignacio Alarcon, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
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Energy Investment and Finance in a Low-Carbon Future Compared with “Business-As-Usual”
Mr. Laszlo Varro, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency (IEA)
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The Implications of the Three Scenarios on Energy Security and Trade
Mr. Ian Twomey, Director, Hale and Twomey
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The Implications of the Three Scenarios on Electricity Trade
Mr. David Wogan, Senior Research Associate, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC)
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ADB’s Approach in Supporting Low Carbon Development in Asia – Investing in Climate Change Mitigation
Dr. Kee-Yung Nam, Principal Energy Economist, Sector Advisory Service Cluster, Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Session 4: Looking Ahead to the 8th Edition and Identifying Potential Research Gaps

This session with focus on key topics that could be explored in the 8th Edition of the APEC Outlook and identifying existing and potential research gaps.

S4 Moderator

Dr. Cary Bloyd, Senior Staff Scientist, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
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Introduction to the topic
Mr. James Kendell, Vice President, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
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A Changing Transport Sector and Implications on Energy Geopolitics
Ms. Amy Jaffe, David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment and Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change, Council on Foreign Relations
S4-2PDF
Deep Decarbonisation Pathways
Dr. Chris Bataille, Adjunct Professor, Simon Fraser University & Associate Researcher on Climate and Energy Policies, IDDRI
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The Energy-Water Nexus
Mr. Jordan Macknick, Lead Energy-Water-Land Analyst, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

Concluding Session:

In this final session, the speakers will focus on how to increase the socialization of the Outlook throughout the APEC region. As a part of this discussion, speakers will comment on possible scenarios to examine in the 8th Edition of the Outlook in order to continue to further improve the relevance of this research project.

S5-1

Socialisation of the Outlook Throughout APEC
Dr. Jyuung-Shiauu Chern, APEC EWG LS
S5-2PDF
Possible Scenarios to Examine in the 8th Outlook
Prof. Peter Hartley, Professor of Economics/Baker Institute, Rice University, US
Discussion and Closing Remarks
Mr. Takato Ojimi, President, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)